A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
